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Union / Daugava vs Lielupe — Cup 2020

Union / Daugava
Union / Daugava
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lielupe
Lielupe
5/17/2025CupCup · 1st RoundRTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union / Daugava77%
×Draw13%
Lielupe10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union / Daugava
3.33
Lielupe
1.17

Union / Daugava creates 185% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Union / Daugava
3.33
Lielupe
1.33

allows per match

Union / Daugava
1.00
Lielupe
3.33

finishing

Union / Daugava+0.00on par
Lielupe+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union / Daugava ↓

Lielupe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Union / Daugava or draw
90%
Union / Daugava or Lielupe
87%
Draw or Lielupe
23%

Winning margin

Union / Daugava wins by 2+
59%
Lielupe wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Union / Daugava 1+ goals
96%
Union / Daugava 2+ goals
84%
Union / Daugava 3+ goals
63%
Lielupe 1+ goals
69%
Lielupe 2+ goals
33%
Lielupe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union / Daugava (draw refunded)
89%
Lielupe (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union / Daugava at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Lielupe away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union / Daugava attack 3.33 + Lielupe defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Lielupe attack 1.33 + Union / Daugava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Union / Daugava scores more
77%
level
13%
Lielupe scores more
10%

Union / Daugava at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Union / Daugava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Union / Daugava 5–0 Lielupe

Union / Daugava beat Lielupe 5-0 in Cup on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.