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Union / Daugava vs JFK Ventspils — Cup 2020

Union / Daugava
Union / Daugava
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
6/20/2025CupCup · Play-off RoundRTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union / Daugava47%
×Draw20%
JFK Ventspils33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union / Daugava
2.27
JFK Ventspils
1.90

Union / Daugava creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Union / Daugava
3.33
JFK Ventspils
2.80

allows per match

Union / Daugava
1.00
JFK Ventspils
1.20

finishing

Union / Daugava+0.00on par
JFK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union / Daugava ↓

JFK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Union / Daugava or draw
67%
Union / Daugava or JFK Ventspils
80%
Draw or JFK Ventspils
53%

Winning margin

Union / Daugava wins by 2+
28%
JFK Ventspils wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Union / Daugava 1+ goals
90%
Union / Daugava 2+ goals
66%
Union / Daugava 3+ goals
39%
JFK Ventspils 1+ goals
85%
JFK Ventspils 2+ goals
56%
JFK Ventspils 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Union / Daugava (draw refunded)
59%
JFK Ventspils (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union / Daugava at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

JFK Ventspils away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union / Daugava attack 3.33 + JFK Ventspils defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

JFK Ventspils attack 2.80 + Union / Daugava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union / Daugava scores more
47%
level
20%
JFK Ventspils scores more
33%

Union / Daugava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union / Daugava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union / Daugava vs JFK Ventspils

JFK Ventspils beat Union / Daugava 3-1 in Cup on June 20, 2025.

The match was played at RTU stadions in Rīga (Riga).