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Union Comercio vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
5/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 14Estadio IPD de Nueva Cajamarca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Union Comercio44%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.56
UTC Cajamarca
1.27

Union Comercio creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 144 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
1.50
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Union Comercio
1.62
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
69%
Union Comercio or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
56%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
22%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
79%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
46%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
21%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
72%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
36%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
59%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Comercio scores more
44%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
31%

Union Comercio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Comercio vs UTC Cajamarca

Union Comercio beat UTC Cajamarca 4-0 in Primera División on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio IPD de Nueva Cajamarca in Cajamarca.