Union Comercio 4–2 Sport Rosario: Result & Stats

Union Comercio

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Rosario

11/8/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 13IPD de Moyobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Union Comercio51%

×Draw23%

Sport Rosario26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union ComercioExpected goals in this matchSport Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.22

Union Comercio

1.82

Sport Rosario

1.22

Union Comercio creates 49% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

0.82

1.62

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Union Comercio

1.50

Sport Rosario

0.82

allows per match

Union Comercio

1.62

Sport Rosario

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Sport Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw

74%

Union Comercio or Sport Rosario

77%

Draw or Sport Rosario

49%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+

29%

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals

84%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

54%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

27%

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

70%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

34%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

67%

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Comercio scores more

51%

level

23%

Sport Rosario scores more

26%

Union Comercio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff