Union Comercio 4–1 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Union Comercio

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

7/10/2022

Segunda División · Clausura - 2Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Union Comercio66%

×Draw19%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union ComercioExpected goals in this matchAlfonso Ugarte Puno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.90

Union Comercio

2.18

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.90

Union Comercio creates 142% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 25 away

2.20

creates per match

0.96

0.84

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Union Comercio

2.20

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.96

allows per match

Union Comercio

0.84

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw

86%

Union Comercio or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

81%

Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

34%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+

43%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals

89%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

64%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

37%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

59%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

23%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

82%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 2.20 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.18

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Union Comercio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Union Comercio scores more

66%

level

19%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

14%

Union Comercio at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff