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Union Cocle vs Deportivo Universitario — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Union Cocle
Union Cocle
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
2/8/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 4Virgilio Tejeira Andrion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Cocle47%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Universitario23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Cocle
1.23
Deportivo Universitario
0.76

Union Cocle creates 62% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 129 away

creates per match

Union Cocle
1.13
Deportivo Universitario
1.01

allows per match

Union Cocle
0.50
Deportivo Universitario
1.33

finishing

Union Cocle+0.00on par
Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Cocle ↓

Deportivo Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Union Cocle or draw
77%
Union Cocle or Deportivo Universitario
70%
Draw or Deportivo Universitario
53%

Winning margin

Union Cocle wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Cocle 1+ goals
71%
Union Cocle 2+ goals
35%
Union Cocle 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
53%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Cocle (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Cocle at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Deportivo Universitario away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Cocle attack 1.13 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.01 + Union Cocle defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Cocle scores more
47%
level
30%
Deportivo Universitario scores more
23%

Union Cocle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Cocle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
39'
J. Tobon
42'
J. Simons
53'
A. Gallardo
72'
R. Herrera← G. Moreno
76'
J. Tobon
76'
J. Tobon
81'
R. Reina← E. Moreno
87'
A. Hurtado← A. Gallardo
87'
R. Martinez← J. Lynch
88'
J. Barrera← B. Wittle
90+3'
J. Gerald← R. Perez
90+6'
R. Herrera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Cocle vs Deportivo Universitario

Union Cocle and Deportivo Universitario drew 0-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Virgilio Tejeira Andrion.