Union Cocle 0–0 Alianza FC: Result & Stats

Union Cocle

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza FC

3/22/2026

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 10Virgilio Tejeira Andrion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Cocle46%

×Draw31%

Alianza FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union CocleExpected goals in this matchAlianza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.73

Union Cocle

1.15

Alianza FC

0.73

Union Cocle creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 129 away

1.13

creates per match

0.97

0.50

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Union Cocle

1.13

Alianza FC

0.97

allows per match

Union Cocle

0.50

Alianza FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Cocle+0.00on par

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Cocle ↓

Alianza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Union Cocle or draw

77%

Union Cocle or Alianza FC

69%

Draw or Alianza FC

54%

Winning margin

Union Cocle wins by 2+

20%

Alianza FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Cocle 1+ goals

68%

Union Cocle 2+ goals

32%

Union Cocle 3+ goals

11%

Alianza FC 1+ goals

52%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

17%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Union Cocle (draw refunded)

66%

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Cocle at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Cocle attack 1.13 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + Union Cocle defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Cocle scores more

46%

level

31%

Alianza FC scores more

23%

Union Cocle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Cocle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

62'

71'

73'

74'

A. Stewart← C. Rodriguez

78'

R. Perez← C. Reyna

86'

A. Gallardo← D. Hunt

86'

Isidoro← J. Lynch

90+2'

A. Hurtado← R. Herrera

90+3'

A. Arenales← R. Rodriguez

90'

J. Marengo← G. Chiari

90+1'

D. Spencer←

Union

Alianza

12

31

5

3

13

22

17

15

▼

Galvez

40

▼

Rodriguez

28

Alvarado

77

▼

42

2

16

8

61

▼

Hunt

6

▼

Reyna

7

Carmona

31

▼

Herrera

19

▼

Lynch

25

Reluz

11

▼

Rodriguez

78'▲R. Perez←▼C. Reyna

86'▲A. Gallardo←▼D. Hunt

86'▲Isidoro←▼J. Lynch

90+2'▲A. Hurtado←▼R. Herrera

90+3'▲A. Arenales←▼R. Rodriguez

Union Cocle substitutes

1Colorado26Herrera18Diaz20Hurtado21Gallardo9Isidoro15Martinez17Arenales23Perez

Manager: Jair Palacios

73'▲J. Garces←▼A. Galvez

74'▲A. Stewart←▼C. Rodriguez

90'▲J. Marengo←▼G. Chiari

90+1'▲D. Spencer←▼—

Alianza FC substitutes

30Melgar6Marengo8RangelSpencer34Palacio52Morelos19Vargas26Garces29Stewart