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Union Berlin vs Slavia Praha — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
12/9/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Berlin43%
×Draw26%
Slavia Praha31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin
1.42
Slavia Praha
1.17

Union Berlin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Union Berlin
1.25
Slavia Praha
1.58

allows per match

Union Berlin
0.75
Slavia Praha
1.58

finishing

Union Berlin+0.00on par
Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw
69%
Union Berlin or Slavia Praha
74%
Draw or Slavia Praha
57%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+
20%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals
76%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
41%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
17%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
69%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)
58%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 1.25 + Slavia Praha defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Slavia Praha attack 1.58 + Union Berlin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Berlin scores more
43%
level
26%
Slavia Praha scores more
31%

Union Berlin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Berlin vs Slavia Praha

Union Berlin and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 9, 2021.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.