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Union Berlin U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
9/28/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 8Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Union Berlin U1938%
×Draw22%
Wolfsburg U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
1.79
Wolfsburg U19
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 70 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
2.38
Wolfsburg U19
2.30

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
1.43
Wolfsburg U19
1.21

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
60%
Union Berlin U19 or Wolfsburg U19
78%
Draw or Wolfsburg U19
62%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
19%
Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
83%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
53%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
26%
Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
84%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
55%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.43 · 65 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.38 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.30 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Wolfsburg U19 scores more
40%

Wolfsburg U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Union Berlin U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.