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Union Berlin U19 vs Napoli U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Napoli U19
Napoli U19
10/24/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Berlin U1962%
×Draw18%
Napoli U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
2.57
Napoli U19
1.43

Union Berlin U19 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
1.67
Napoli U19
0.53

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
2.33
Napoli U19
3.47

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Napoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Napoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
80%
Union Berlin U19 or Napoli U19
82%
Draw or Napoli U19
38%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
41%
Napoli U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
92%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
72%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
47%
Napoli U19 1+ goals
76%
Napoli U19 2+ goals
42%
Napoli U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Napoli U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Napoli U19 away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.67 + Napoli U19 defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.57

Napoli U19 attack 0.53 + Union Berlin U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
62%
level
18%
Napoli U19 scores more
20%

Union Berlin U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Union Berlin U19 4–1 Napoli U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Napoli U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin.