Union Berlin U19 3–1 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

Union Berlin U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Magdeburg U19

J. Wiehe 83'

G. Mewes 58'

L. Asanji 32'

M. Baars 23'

8/25/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 5Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Union Berlin U1951%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.71

Union Berlin U19

2.30

Magdeburg U19

1.71

Union Berlin U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 61 away

2.30

creates per match

2.02

1.39

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.30

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.39

Magdeburg U19

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

71%

Union Berlin U19 or Magdeburg U19

80%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

49%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

31%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

90%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

67%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

40%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

51%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.30 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.30

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

29%

Union Berlin U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

32'

46'

58'

60'

60'

T. Blaszczak← T. Kannegießer

60'

T. Sakoufakis← M. Gray

62'

B. Ekobena-Seeger← P. Heinrich

62'

K. Madumere← L. Grabenberg

77'

J. Wiehe← L. Asanji

83'

J. Wiehe

86'

Ahmad Badran← G. Mewes

87'

C. Güllmeister← L. Mergner

87'

L. Barth← M. Adrian

Union

Magdeburg

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Asanji

▼

Ciobanu

▼

Gray

Manager: M. Grote

46'▲M. Alkan←▼I. Ciobanu

60'▲S. Tabuaa←▼S. Zinner

60'▲T. Blaszczak←▼T. Kannegießer

60'▲T. Sakoufakis←▼M. Gray

77'▲J. Wiehe←▼L. Asanji

86'▲Ahmad Badran←▼G. Mewes

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

AlkanTabuaaBlaszczakSakoufakisWieheBadranWisbereit

Manager: D. Wölfel

62'▲B. Ekobena-Seeger←▼P. Heinrich

62'▲K. Madumere←▼L. Grabenberg

87'▲C. Güllmeister←▼L. Mergner

87'▲L. Barth←▼M. Adrian

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

Ekobena-SeegerMadumereGüllmeisterBarthStraußGantzkeGramelsberger