Union Berlin U19 1–1 Holstein Kiel U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Holstein Kiel U19

L. Asanji 53'

R. Uguna 85' (pen)

8/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 3Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Union Berlin U1959%

×Draw19%

Holstein Kiel U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.50

Union Berlin U19

2.50

Holstein Kiel U19

1.50

Union Berlin U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 61 away

2.30

creates per match

1.61

1.39

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.30

Holstein Kiel U19

1.61

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.39

Holstein Kiel U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

78%

Union Berlin U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

81%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

41%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

38%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

92%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

71%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

45%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

78%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

44%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.30 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.50

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

22%

Union Berlin U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Wiehe← S. Tabuaa

53'

L. Asanji

60'

G. Mewes← L. Prosche

60'

T. Kannegießer← T. Sakoufakis

64'

R. Uguna← K. Tack

70'

H. Westphal← M. Schmitz

75'

M. Gray← J. Friedrich

75'

O. Bohn← L. Asanji

81'

K. Hahn← A. Assameur

81'

L. Wiese← K. Kortum

82'

T. Blaszczak← S. Zinner

85'

R. UgunaPenalty

Union

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Asanji

Ciobanu

▼

Tabuaa

Manager: M. Grote

46'▲J. Wiehe←▼S. Tabuaa

60'▲G. Mewes←▼L. Prosche

60'▲T. Kannegießer←▼T. Sakoufakis

75'▲M. Gray←▼J. Friedrich

75'▲O. Bohn←▼L. Asanji

82'▲T. Blaszczak←▼S. Zinner

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

WieheMewesKannegießerGrayBohnBlaszczakWisbereit

Manager: J. Kaps

64'▲R. Uguna←▼K. Tack

70'▲H. Westphal←▼M. Schmitz

81'▲K. Hahn←▼A. Assameur

81'▲L. Wiese←▼K. Kortum

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

UgunaWestphalHahnWieseDuahAhlers

U19 Bundesliga: Union Berlin U19 1–1 Holstein Kiel U19

Union Berlin U19 and Holstein Kiel U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2024.

Goals: L. Asanji (53'), R. Uguna (85' pen).

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.

Union Berlin U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Union Berlin U19 1–1 Holstein Kiel U19