Union Berlin U19 1–0 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

N. Engelbreth 83'

2/19/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Union Berlin U1944%

×Draw22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.75

Union Berlin U19

1.98

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.75

Union Berlin U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 11 away

2.32

creates per match

2.09

1.41

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.32

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.41

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

65%

Union Berlin U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

78%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

56%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

24%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

59%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

31%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

83%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

52%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.32 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

44%

level

22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

35%

Union Berlin U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

W. Noack← A. Millgramm

46'

M. Rösner← G. Kamdem

62'

Y. Böge← S. Akova

63'

N. Engelbreth← V. Aliji

71'

B. Gögce← B. Kalaycı

83'

A. Soliman← W. Noack

83'

P. Behrend← G. Didoss

83'

T. Koczulap← J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

83'

N. Engelbreth

84'

B. Hoffmann← M. Sanogo

Union

Hertha

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Grote

46'▲M. Rösner←▼G. Kamdem

63'▲N. Engelbreth←▼V. Aliji

71'▲B. Gögce←▼B. Kalaycı

84'▲B. Hoffmann←▼M. Sanogo

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

RösnerEngelbrethGögceHoffmannArslanogullariPreuGraupner

Manager: M. Siebert

34'▲W. Noack←▼A. Millgramm

62'▲Y. Böge←▼S. Akova

83'▲A. Soliman←▼W. Noack

83'▲P. Behrend←▼G. Didoss

83'▲T. Koczulap←▼J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

NoackBögeSolimanBehrendKoczulapNoackGörlitz

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 19, 2023.

Goals: N. Engelbreth (83').

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.

Union Berlin U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19