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Union Berlin U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
3/7/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Union Berlin U1940%
×Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
1.83
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 66 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
2.30
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.18

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
1.39
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.36

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
62%
Union Berlin U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
78%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
60%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
21%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
84%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
54%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
28%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
83%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
53%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.30 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.18 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
40%
level
22%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
38%

Union Berlin U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Union
Bayer
M. Grote
Manager: M. Grote
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok

Union Berlin U19 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Union Berlin U19 and Bayer Leverkusen U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 7, 2026.