Unión Adarve 0–2 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

Unión Adarve

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Trival Valderas

11/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unión Adarve53%

×Draw25%

Trival Valderas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión AdarveExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Unión Adarve

1.63

Trival Valderas

0.97

Unión Adarve creates 68% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 115 away

1.96

creates per match

0.97

0.98

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Unión Adarve

1.96

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Unión Adarve

0.98

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Adarve ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Unión Adarve or draw

78%

Unión Adarve or Trival Valderas

75%

Draw or Trival Valderas

47%

Winning margin

Unión Adarve wins by 2+

28%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Adarve 1+ goals

80%

Unión Adarve 2+ goals

48%

Unión Adarve 3+ goals

22%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

62%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

25%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)

70%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Adarve at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Adarve attack 1.96 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Unión Adarve defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unión Adarve scores more

53%

level

25%

Trival Valderas scores more

22%

Unión Adarve at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Unión Adarve 0–2 Trival Valderas

Trival Valderas beat Unión Adarve 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque in Madrid.

Unión Adarve vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Unión Adarve 0–2 Trival Valderas