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Unión Adarve vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
Kosty 88', 60', 53'
A. Perez Morales 17'
M. Alpha 65'
R. Camara 56'
J. Herrero 10'
3/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unión Adarve42%
×Draw24%
Leganés II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Adarve
1.64
Leganés II
1.44

Unión Adarve creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

creates per match

Unión Adarve
1.96
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Unión Adarve
0.98
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Unión Adarve+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Adarve ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Unión Adarve or draw
66%
Unión Adarve or Leganés II
76%
Draw or Leganés II
58%

Winning margin

Unión Adarve wins by 2+
22%
Leganés II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Unión Adarve 1+ goals
81%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
49%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
23%
Leganés II 1+ goals
76%
Leganés II 2+ goals
42%
Leganés II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
56%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Adarve at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Adarve attack 1.96 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.64

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Unión Adarve defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Unión Adarve scores more
42%
level
24%
Leganés II scores more
34%

Unión Adarve at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. Herrero
17'
A. Perez Morales
53'
Kosty
56'
R. Camara
60'
Kosty
65'
M. Alpha
88'
Kosty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Adarve vs Leganés II

Unión Adarve beat Leganés II 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Herrero (10'), A. Perez Morales (17'), Kosty (53', 60', 88'), R. Camara (56'), M. Alpha (65').

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.