Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unión Adarve vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
1/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unión Adarve48%
×Draw25%
Las Rozas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Adarve
1.55
Las Rozas
1.10

Unión Adarve creates 41% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

Unión Adarve
1.96
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Unión Adarve
0.98
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Unión Adarve+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Adarve ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unión Adarve or draw
73%
Unión Adarve or Las Rozas
75%
Draw or Las Rozas
52%

Winning margin

Unión Adarve wins by 2+
24%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Unión Adarve 1+ goals
79%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
46%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
20%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
67%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
30%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
64%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Adarve at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Adarve attack 1.96 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Unión Adarve defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unión Adarve scores more
48%
level
25%
Las Rozas scores more
27%

Unión Adarve at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Unión Adarve 1–0 Las Rozas

Unión Adarve beat Las Rozas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque in Madrid.