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Unión Adarve vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Campo García de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Unión Adarve53%
×Draw25%
Flat Earth21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Adarve
1.58
Flat Earth
0.90

Unión Adarve creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Unión Adarve
1.96
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

Unión Adarve
0.98
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

Unión Adarve+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Adarve ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unión Adarve or draw
79%
Unión Adarve or Flat Earth
75%
Draw or Flat Earth
47%

Winning margin

Unión Adarve wins by 2+
28%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unión Adarve 1+ goals
79%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
47%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
21%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
59%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
23%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
71%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Adarve at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Adarve attack 1.96 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.58

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Unión Adarve defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unión Adarve scores more
53%
level
25%
Flat Earth scores more
21%

Unión Adarve at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Unión Adarve 1–0 Flat Earth

Unión Adarve beat Flat Earth 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Campo García de la Mata in Madrid.