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Union Abong-Mbang vs Les Astres — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
1 – 1
Les Astres
Les Astres
6/20/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Championship Group - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang39%
×Draw28%
Les Astres33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.27
Les Astres
1.14

Union Abong-Mbang creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
Les Astres
1.80

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
Les Astres
1.20

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
67%
Union Abong-Mbang or Les Astres
72%
Draw or Les Astres
61%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
17%
Les Astres wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
72%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
36%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
14%
Les Astres 1+ goals
68%
Les Astres 2+ goals
32%
Les Astres 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
54%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Les Astres defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Les Astres attack 1.80 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
39%
level
28%
Les Astres scores more
33%

Union Abong-Mbang at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Abong-Mbang vs Les Astres

Union Abong-Mbang and Les Astres drew 1-1 in Elite Two on June 20, 2026.