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Union Abong-Mbang vs Kumba — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kumba
Kumba
6/12/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Championship Group - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang58%
×Draw27%
Kumba15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.44
Kumba
0.60

Union Abong-Mbang creates 140% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
Kumba
0.73

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
Kumba
1.55

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
Kumba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Kumba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
85%
Union Abong-Mbang or Kumba
73%
Draw or Kumba
42%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
30%
Kumba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
76%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
42%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
18%
Kumba 1+ goals
45%
Kumba 2+ goals
12%
Kumba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
79%
Kumba (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Kumba away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Kumba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kumba attack 0.73 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
58%
level
27%
Kumba scores more
15%

Union Abong-Mbang at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Abong-Mbang vs Kumba

Union Abong-Mbang beat Kumba 1-0 in Elite Two on June 12, 2026.