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Union Abong-Mbang vs Fovu Club — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
12/13/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang61%
×Draw25%
Fovu Club14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.56
Fovu Club
0.59

Union Abong-Mbang creates 164% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
Fovu Club
0.70

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
Fovu Club
1.80

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
86%
Union Abong-Mbang or Fovu Club
75%
Draw or Fovu Club
39%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
33%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
79%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
46%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
21%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
45%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
12%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
81%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Fovu Club defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fovu Club attack 0.70 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
61%
level
25%
Fovu Club scores more
14%

Union Abong-Mbang at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Union Abong-Mbang 0–0 Fovu Club

Union Abong-Mbang and Fovu Club drew 0-0 in Elite Two on December 13, 2024.