Union Abong-Mbang 1–0 Bamboutos: Result & Stats

Union Abong-Mbang

FT

1 – 0

Bamboutos

2/8/2026

Elite Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang41%

×Draw35%

Bamboutos24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Abong-MbangExpected goals in this matchBamboutos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.65

Union Abong-Mbang

0.94

Bamboutos

0.65

Union Abong-Mbang creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

0.82

0.48

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang

1.33

Bamboutos

0.82

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang

0.48

Bamboutos

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Bamboutos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Bamboutos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw

76%

Union Abong-Mbang or Bamboutos

65%

Draw or Bamboutos

59%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+

15%

Bamboutos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals

61%

Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals

24%

Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals

7%

Bamboutos 1+ goals

48%

Bamboutos 2+ goals

14%

Bamboutos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)

63%

Bamboutos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Bamboutos away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Bamboutos defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bamboutos attack 0.82 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more

41%

level

35%

Bamboutos scores more

24%

Union Abong-Mbang at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff