Union Abong-Mbang 0–0 Bafmeng United

Union Abong-Mbang

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bafmeng United

4/30/2026

Elite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang53%

×Draw27%

Bafmeng United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Abong-MbangExpected goals in this matchBafmeng United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.76

Union Abong-Mbang

1.43

Bafmeng United

0.76

Union Abong-Mbang creates 88% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

1.03

0.48

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang

1.33

Bafmeng United

1.03

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang

0.48

Bafmeng United

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Bafmeng United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw

80%

Union Abong-Mbang or Bafmeng United

73%

Draw or Bafmeng United

47%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+

27%

Bafmeng United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals

76%

Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals

42%

Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals

17%

Bafmeng United 1+ goals

53%

Bafmeng United 2+ goals

18%

Bafmeng United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)

73%

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more

53%

level

27%

Bafmeng United scores more

20%

Union Abong-Mbang at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff