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Union Abong-Mbang vs Avion Academy — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
4/22/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang48%
×Draw29%
Avion Academy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.29
Avion Academy
0.80

Union Abong-Mbang creates 61% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
Avion Academy
1.11

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
Avion Academy
1.26

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
77%
Union Abong-Mbang or Avion Academy
71%
Draw or Avion Academy
52%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
22%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
72%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
37%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
14%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
55%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
19%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
67%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
48%
level
29%
Avion Academy scores more
23%

Union Abong-Mbang at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Abong-Mbang vs Avion Academy

Union Abong-Mbang beat Avion Academy 3-0 in Elite Two on April 22, 2026.