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Union Abong-Mbang vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
6/29/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Relegation Group

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang38%
×Draw28%
APEJES Academy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.22
APEJES Academy
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
66%
Union Abong-Mbang or APEJES Academy
72%
Draw or APEJES Academy
62%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
16%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
70%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
34%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
12%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
68%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
32%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
53%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
38%
level
28%
APEJES Academy scores more
34%

Union Abong-Mbang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Union Abong-Mbang 3–2 APEJES Academy

Union Abong-Mbang beat APEJES Academy 3-2 in Elite Two on June 29, 2025.