Unie Hlubina 2–4 Beskyd Frenštát: Result & Stats

Unie Hlubina

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Beskyd Frenštát

6/8/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 29Stadion TJ Unie Hlubina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Unie Hlubina64%

×Draw19%

Beskyd Frenštát17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unie HlubinaExpected goals in this matchBeskyd Frenštát

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.08

Unie Hlubina

2.28

Beskyd Frenštát

1.08

Unie Hlubina creates 111% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

2.18

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Unie Hlubina

2.18

Beskyd Frenštát

1.23

allows per match

Unie Hlubina

0.93

Beskyd Frenštát

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unie Hlubina+0.00on par

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unie Hlubina ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Unie Hlubina or draw

83%

Unie Hlubina or Beskyd Frenštát

81%

Draw or Beskyd Frenštát

36%

Winning margin

Unie Hlubina wins by 2+

41%

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Unie Hlubina 1+ goals

90%

Unie Hlubina 2+ goals

66%

Unie Hlubina 3+ goals

39%

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

66%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

29%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)

79%

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unie Hlubina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unie Hlubina attack 2.18 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.28

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Unie Hlubina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Unie Hlubina scores more

64%

level

19%

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

17%

Unie Hlubina at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Unie Hlubina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff