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Rayka Babol vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
1 – 1
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
6/30/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol43%
×Draw32%
Niroye Zamini25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
1.07
Niroye Zamini
0.74

Rayka Babol creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Niroye Zamini
0.76

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Niroye Zamini
1.06

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
75%
Rayka Babol or Niroye Zamini
68%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
57%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
17%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
66%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
29%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
9%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
52%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
17%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
63%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
43%
level
32%
Niroye Zamini scores more
25%

Rayka Babol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayka Babol vs Niroye Zamini

Rayka Babol and Niroye Zamini drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.