Uničov 1–1 Vysočina Jihlava II: Result & Stats

Uničov

FT

1 – 1

Vysočina Jihlava II

8/1/2021

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 1Stadion SK Uničov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Uničov71%

×Draw17%

Vysočina Jihlava II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UničovExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

0.91

Uničov

2.49

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.91

Uničov creates 174% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 23 away

2.24

creates per match

0.70

1.13

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Uničov

2.24

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.70

allows per match

Uničov

1.13

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uničov+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uničov ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Uničov or draw

88%

Uničov or Vysočina Jihlava II

83%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II

29%

Winning margin

Uničov wins by 2+

49%

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Uničov 1+ goals

92%

Uničov 2+ goals

71%

Uničov 3+ goals

45%

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

60%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

23%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Uničov (draw refunded)

86%

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uničov at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uničov attack 2.24 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.49

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Uničov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Uničov scores more

71%

level

17%

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

12%

Uničov at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff