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Uničov vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uničov
Uničov
CANC
09:15
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
3/13/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Stadion SK Uničov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Uničov67%
×Draw18%
Dolní Benešov15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uničov
2.49
Dolní Benešov
1.10

Uničov creates 126% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 26 away

creates per match

Uničov
2.24
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Uničov
1.13
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Uničov+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uničov ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Uničov or draw
85%
Uničov or Dolní Benešov
82%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
33%

Winning margin

Uničov wins by 2+
45%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Uničov 1+ goals
92%
Uničov 2+ goals
71%
Uničov 3+ goals
45%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
67%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
30%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uničov (draw refunded)
82%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uničov at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uničov attack 2.24 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.49

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Uničov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Uničov scores more
67%
level
18%
Dolní Benešov scores more
15%

Uničov at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uničov face Dolní Benešov (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Uničov hosting Dolní Benešov. Match starts March 13, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Uničov host Dolní Benešov at Stadion SK Uničov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.