Uničov 0–0 Baník Ostrava II: Result & Stats

Uničov

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baník Ostrava II

10/9/2022

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10Stadion SK Uničov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Uničov40%

×Draw23%

Baník Ostrava II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UničovExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.60

Uničov

1.69

Baník Ostrava II

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 65 away

2.24

creates per match

2.08

1.13

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Uničov

2.24

Baník Ostrava II

2.08

allows per match

Uničov

1.13

Baník Ostrava II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uničov+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uničov ↓

Baník Ostrava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Uničov or draw

63%

Uničov or Baník Ostrava II

77%

Draw or Baník Ostrava II

60%

Winning margin

Uničov wins by 2+

21%

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Uničov 1+ goals

82%

Uničov 2+ goals

50%

Uničov 3+ goals

24%

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

80%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

47%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Uničov (draw refunded)

52%

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uničov at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uničov attack 2.24 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Uničov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uničov scores more

40%

level

23%

Baník Ostrava II scores more

37%

Uničov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff