Scoreo

Uniclinic Atletico Clube vs CampinenseSerie C 2026

Mauro Iguatu 80' (pen)
4/9/2022Serie CSerie C · Round 1Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube47%
×Draw29%
Campinense25%
Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1.29
Campinense
0.85

Uniclinic Atletico Clube creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube
0.89
Campinense
0.70

allows per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1.00
Campinense
1.70

finishing

Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par
Campinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

Campinense
0
1
2
3
4
0
0012%
0110%
024%
031%
040%
1
1015%
1113%
125%
132%
140%
2
2010%
218%
224%
231%
240%
3
304%
314%
322%
330%
340%
4
401%
411%
420%
430%
440%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or draw
75%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube or Campinense
71%
Draw or Campinense
53%

Winning margin

Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+
22%
Campinense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals
72%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals
37%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals
14%
Campinense 1+ goals
57%
Campinense 2+ goals
21%
Campinense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)
66%
Campinense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at homecreates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Campinense awaycreates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 0.89 + Campinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Campinense attack 0.70 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more
47%
level
29%
Campinense scores more
25%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Uniclinic Atletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Uniclinic
Campinense
62'BrunoHigor Luan
62'Patrick MaranhãoMarcelinho
74'WaldsonZé Carlos
83'EduardoLucas Straub
83'RomarinhoEwerton Potiguar

Uniclinic Atletico Clube substitutes

61'André MascenaIago Leite
61'Douglas LimaClaudinho
61'Erick PulgaHugo Freitas
67'Luiz FernandoMichel Bennech
74'João PauloDione

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 0 – 1 Campinense

Campinense beat Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1-0 in Serie C on April 9, 2022.

Goals: Mauro Iguatu (80' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa in Horizonte, Ceará.