Uniclinic Atletico Clube 0–1 ABC: Result & Stats

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ABC

Gustavo França 77'

5/21/2022

Serie C · Round 7Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube38%

×Draw32%

ABC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniclinic Atletico ClubeExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.89

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.02

ABC

0.89

Uniclinic Atletico Clube creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 53 away

0.89

creates per match

0.77

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

0.89

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.00

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniclinic Atletico Clube ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or draw

69%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or ABC

68%

Draw or ABC

62%

Winning margin

Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+

15%

ABC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals

64%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals

27%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals

8%

ABC 1+ goals

59%

ABC 2+ goals

22%

ABC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)

55%

ABC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 0.89 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

ABC attack 0.77 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more

38%

level

32%

ABC scores more

31%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uniclinic Atletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Vinicius

46'

Patrick← Marcos Vinicius

53'

Ari

61'

Fábio Lima← Walfrido

65'

Ari← Marcelinho

65'

Matheus Matos← Zé Carlos

67'

Filipinho

75'

Erick

77'

Gustavo França

78'

Vitinho← Pabulo

83'

M. Maranguape

84'

Wilker← Guto

84'

Yan Lima← Vanderlan

86'

Alyson← Richardson

86'

Jefinho← Henan

86'

Marquinhos← Kelvin

89'

Alyson Almeida

90+6'

Erick

Uniclinic

ABC

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Carlos

65'▲Ari←▼Marcelinho

65'▲Matheus Matos←▼Zé Carlos

78'▲Vitinho←▼Pabulo

84'▲Wilker←▼Guto

84'▲Yan Lima←▼Vanderlan

Uniclinic Atletico Clube substitutes

AriMatosVitinhoWilkerLimaFernandoRoberthPotiguarLuanStraubPedro

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

46'▲Patrick←▼Marcos Vinicius

61'▲Fábio Lima←▼Walfrido

86'▲Alyson←▼Richardson

86'▲Jefinho←▼Henan

86'▲Marquinhos←▼Kelvin

ABC substitutes

PatrickLimaAlysonJefinhoMarquinhosNogueiraCleytonGeovaniNunesThallyson