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Uniao Trabalhadores vs Nacional AC MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
FT
2 – 1
Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
6/10/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores41%
×Draw29%
Nacional AC MG30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Trabalhadores
1.20
Nacional AC MG
0.98

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores
1.27
Nacional AC MG
1.03

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores
0.92
Nacional AC MG
1.12

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par
Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Nacional AC MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw
70%
Uniao Trabalhadores or Nacional AC MG
71%
Draw or Nacional AC MG
59%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
18%
Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
70%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
34%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
12%
Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
62%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
26%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
58%
Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.27 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
41%
level
29%
Nacional AC MG scores more
30%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uniao Trabalhadores vs Nacional AC MG

Uniao Trabalhadores beat Nacional AC MG 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Zama Maciel in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.