Uniao Trabalhadores 2–5 Bahia de Feira

Uniao Trabalhadores

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Bahia de Feira

6/25/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores37%

×Draw28%

Bahia de Feira35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao TrabalhadoresExpected goals in this matchBahia de Feira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.14

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.17

Bahia de Feira

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 36 away

1.36

creates per match

0.92

1.36

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.36

Bahia de Feira

0.92

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.36

Bahia de Feira

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Bahia de Feira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Bahia de Feira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw

65%

Uniao Trabalhadores or Bahia de Feira

72%

Draw or Bahia de Feira

63%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

15%

Bahia de Feira wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

69%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

33%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

11%

Bahia de Feira 1+ goals

68%

Bahia de Feira 2+ goals

32%

Bahia de Feira 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

51%

Bahia de Feira (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Bahia de Feira away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.36 + Bahia de Feira defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bahia de Feira attack 0.92 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

37%

level

28%

Bahia de Feira scores more

35%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff