União Suzano U20 2–0 Rio Claro SP U20

União Suzano U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Claro SP U20

Unknown 66', 7'

5/30/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

União Suzano U2065%

×Draw19%

Rio Claro SP U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União Suzano U20Expected goals in this matchRio Claro SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.03

União Suzano U20

2.27

Rio Claro SP U20

1.03

União Suzano U20 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

0.85

1.21

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

União Suzano U20

1.53

Rio Claro SP U20

0.85

allows per match

União Suzano U20

1.21

Rio Claro SP U20

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Suzano U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

União Suzano U20 or draw

84%

União Suzano U20 or Rio Claro SP U20

81%

Draw or Rio Claro SP U20

35%

Winning margin

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

42%

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

90%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

66%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

39%

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals

64%

Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals

28%

Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

80%

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Suzano U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Suzano U20 attack 1.53 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

União Suzano U20 scores more

65%

level

19%

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more

16%

União Suzano U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "União Suzano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

66'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff