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União Suzano U20 vs Pinda U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União Suzano U20
União Suzano U20
FT
2 – 1
Pinda U20
Pinda U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União Suzano U2023%
×Draw20%
Pinda U2056%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Suzano U20
1.36
Pinda U20
2.21

Pinda U20 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

União Suzano U20
1.53
Pinda U20
3.20

allows per match

União Suzano U20
1.21
Pinda U20
1.20

finishing

União Suzano U20+0.00on par
Pinda U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Suzano U20 ↓

Pinda U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

União Suzano U20 or draw
44%
União Suzano U20 or Pinda U20
80%
Draw or Pinda U20
77%

Winning margin

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+
10%
Pinda U20 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

União Suzano U20 1+ goals
74%
União Suzano U20 2+ goals
39%
União Suzano U20 3+ goals
16%
Pinda U20 1+ goals
89%
Pinda U20 2+ goals
65%
Pinda U20 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Pinda U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Suzano U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Pinda U20 away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Suzano U20 attack 1.53 + Pinda U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Pinda U20 attack 3.20 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

União Suzano U20 scores more
23%
level
20%
Pinda U20 scores more
56%

Pinda U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pinda U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: União Suzano U20 2–1 Pinda U20

União Suzano U20 beat Pinda U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira in Suzano, São Paulo.