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União Suzano U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União Suzano U20
União Suzano U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
C. H. Idalgo Rezende 57'
J. Guilherme 16'
Giulio 69'
Agner 53', 33'
Juan Francisco 35'
4/27/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

União Suzano U2026%
×Draw24%
Palmeiras U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Suzano U20
1.14
Palmeiras U20
1.68

Palmeiras U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

União Suzano U20
1.53
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

União Suzano U20
1.21
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

União Suzano U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Suzano U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

União Suzano U20 or draw
50%
União Suzano U20 or Palmeiras U20
76%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
74%

Winning margin

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+
10%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

União Suzano U20 1+ goals
68%
União Suzano U20 2+ goals
32%
União Suzano U20 3+ goals
11%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
81%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
50%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Suzano U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Suzano U20 attack 1.53 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.14

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

União Suzano U20 scores more
26%
level
24%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
50%

Palmeiras U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
J. Guilherme
33'
Agner
35'
Juan Francisco
48'
Maidana
53'
Agner
57'
C. H. Idalgo Rezende
69'
Giulio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União Suzano U20 vs Palmeiras U20

Palmeiras U20 beat União Suzano U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Guilherme (16'), Agner (33', 53'), Juan Francisco (35'), C. H. Idalgo Rezende (57'), Giulio (69').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira in Suzano, São Paulo.