União Suzano U20 1–0 Jabaquara U20: Result & Stats

União Suzano U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jabaquara U20

V. M. Severo 52'

7/11/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

União Suzano U2059%

×Draw22%

Jabaquara U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União Suzano U20Expected goals in this matchJabaquara U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.96

União Suzano U20

1.89

Jabaquara U20

0.96

União Suzano U20 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

0.71

1.21

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

União Suzano U20

1.53

Jabaquara U20

0.71

allows per match

União Suzano U20

1.21

Jabaquara U20

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Suzano U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

União Suzano U20 or draw

81%

União Suzano U20 or Jabaquara U20

78%

Draw or Jabaquara U20

41%

Winning margin

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

35%

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

85%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

56%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

29%

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

62%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

25%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Suzano U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Suzano U20 attack 1.53 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

União Suzano U20 scores more

59%

level

22%

Jabaquara U20 scores more

19%

União Suzano U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "União Suzano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

V. M. Severo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff