Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

União São João U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União São João U20
União São João U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Lucas Ferreira 66'
R. Francisco 59'
C. L. Silverio Ribeiro 25'
7/21/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

União São João U2017%
×Draw22%
São Paulo U2061%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União São João U20
0.86
São Paulo U20
1.88

São Paulo U20 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

creates per match

União São João U20
1.00
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

União São João U20
1.85
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw
39%
União São João U20 or São Paulo U20
78%
Draw or São Paulo U20
83%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+
5%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals
58%
União São João U20 2+ goals
21%
União São João U20 3+ goals
6%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
85%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
56%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)
21%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

União São João U20 scores more
17%
level
22%
São Paulo U20 scores more
61%

São Paulo U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
C. L. Silverio Ribeiro
59'
R. Francisco
66'
Lucas Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União São João U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat União São João U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 21, 2024.

Goals: C. L. Silverio Ribeiro (25'), R. Francisco (59'), Lucas Ferreira (66').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto in Araras, São Paulo.