União São João U20 0–4 Santo André U20

União São João U20

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Santo André U20

Maycon 54'

Davi Versiani 51'

D. Davi 49'

Indio 42'

7/4/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

União São João U2029%

×Draw24%

Santo André U2047%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União São João U20Expected goals in this matchSanto André U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.68

União São João U20

1.25

Santo André U20

1.68

Santo André U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.85

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

União São João U20

1.00

Santo André U20

1.50

allows per match

União São João U20

1.85

Santo André U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par

Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw

53%

União São João U20 or Santo André U20

76%

Draw or Santo André U20

71%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+

12%

Santo André U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals

71%

União São João U20 2+ goals

36%

União São João U20 3+ goals

13%

Santo André U20 1+ goals

81%

Santo André U20 2+ goals

50%

Santo André U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

União São João U20 scores more

29%

level

24%

Santo André U20 scores more

47%

Santo André U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Indio

49'

D. Davi

51'

Davi Versiani

54'

Maycon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff