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União São João U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União São João U20
União São João U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
K. Freire 80'
Keven 11'
4/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

União São João U2029%
×Draw25%
Portuguesa U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União São João U20
1.19
Portuguesa U20
1.58

Portuguesa U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

União São João U20
1.00
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

União São João U20
1.85
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw
54%
União São João U20 or Portuguesa U20
75%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
71%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+
12%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals
70%
União São João U20 2+ goals
33%
União São João U20 3+ goals
12%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
79%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
47%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)
38%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

União São João U20 scores more
29%
level
25%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
46%

Portuguesa U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Keven
80'
K. Freire
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: União São João U20 0–2 Portuguesa U20

Portuguesa U20 beat União São João U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: Keven (11'), K. Freire (80').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto in Araras, São Paulo.