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União São João U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União São João U20
União São João U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Unknown 83'
Unknown 49'
7/24/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

União São João U2029%
×Draw26%
EC São Bernardo U2045%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União São João U20
1.15
EC São Bernardo U20
1.50

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

União São João U20
1.00
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

União São João U20
1.85
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw
55%
União São João U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
74%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
71%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+
12%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals
68%
União São João U20 2+ goals
32%
União São João U20 3+ goals
11%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
78%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
44%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)
39%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

União São João U20 scores more
29%
level
26%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
45%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: União São João U20 1–1 EC São Bernardo U20

União São João U20 and EC São Bernardo U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 24, 2026.

Goals: ? (49', 83').