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União São João U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União São João U20
União São João U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
I. Niltton 38'
D. Rosseto 35'
L. Gustavo 73'
L. Azevedo 62'
Ryan Santos 4'
8/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

União São João U2037%
×Draw24%
Água Santa U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União São João U20
1.50
Água Santa U20
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

União São João U20
1.00
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

União São João U20
1.85
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw
62%
União São João U20 or Água Santa U20
76%
Draw or Água Santa U20
63%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+
18%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals
78%
União São João U20 2+ goals
44%
União São João U20 3+ goals
19%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
78%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
45%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

União São João U20 scores more
37%
level
24%
Água Santa U20 scores more
38%

Água Santa U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Ryan Santos
35'
D. Rosseto
38'
I. Niltton
62'
L. Azevedo
73'
L. Gustavo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: União São João U20 2–3 Água Santa U20

Água Santa U20 beat União São João U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on August 6, 2025.

Goals: Ryan Santos (4'), D. Rosseto (35'), I. Niltton (38'), L. Azevedo (62'), L. Gustavo (73').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto in Araras, São Paulo.