União Santarém 1–2 Real: Result & Stats | Liga 3

União Santarém

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real

8/21/2021

Liga 3 · Round 2Campo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

União Santarém35%

×Draw28%

Real37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União SantarémExpected goals in this matchReal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

União Santarém

1.15

Real

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

1.09

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

União Santarém

1.09

Real

1.21

allows per match

União Santarém

1.16

Real

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par

Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw

63%

União Santarém or Real

72%

Draw or Real

65%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+

14%

Real wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals

68%

União Santarém 2+ goals

32%

União Santarém 3+ goals

11%

Real 1+ goals

70%

Real 2+ goals

33%

Real 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)

49%

Real (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Real away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Real defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Real attack 1.21 + União Santarém defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

União Santarém scores more

35%

level

28%

Real scores more

37%

Real at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff