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União Santarém vs Moreirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

União Santarém
União Santarém
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Moreirense
Moreirense
10/19/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Santarém46%
×Draw25%
Moreirense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Santarém
1.60
Moreirense
1.22

União Santarém creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

União Santarém
1.86
Moreirense
1.58

allows per match

União Santarém
0.86
Moreirense
1.33

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw
71%
União Santarém or Moreirense
75%
Draw or Moreirense
54%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+
24%
Moreirense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals
80%
União Santarém 2+ goals
47%
União Santarém 3+ goals
22%
Moreirense 1+ goals
70%
Moreirense 2+ goals
34%
Moreirense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)
61%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.86 + Moreirense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Moreirense attack 1.58 + União Santarém defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

União Santarém scores more
46%
level
25%
Moreirense scores more
29%

União Santarém at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União Santarém vs Moreirense

Moreirense beat União Santarém 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Chã das Padeiras in Santarém.