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União Santarém vs Mafra — Taça de Portugal 2018

União Santarém
União Santarém
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mafra
Mafra
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Santarém43%
×Draw25%
Mafra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Santarém
1.50
Mafra
1.25

União Santarém creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

União Santarém
1.86
Mafra
1.64

allows per match

União Santarém
0.86
Mafra
1.14

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw
68%
União Santarém or Mafra
75%
Draw or Mafra
57%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+
21%
Mafra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals
78%
União Santarém 2+ goals
44%
União Santarém 3+ goals
19%
Mafra 1+ goals
71%
Mafra 2+ goals
36%
Mafra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)
58%
Mafra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.86 + Mafra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mafra attack 1.64 + União Santarém defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

União Santarém scores more
43%
level
25%
Mafra scores more
32%

União Santarém at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União Santarém vs Mafra

Mafra beat União Santarém 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Chã das Padeiras in Marvila.