União Santarém 1–2 Farense: Result & Stats

União Santarém

1 – 2

Farense

Didi 35'

F. Nunes 49'

F. Simoes 10' (pen)

9/29/2019

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Santarém37%

×Draw24%

Farense39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União SantarémExpected goals in this matchFarense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.53

União Santarém

1.47

Farense

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

2.21

0.86

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

União Santarém

1.86

Farense

2.21

allows per match

União Santarém

0.86

Farense

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par

Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Farense →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw

61%

União Santarém or Farense

76%

Draw or Farense

63%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+

17%

Farense wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals

77%

União Santarém 2+ goals

43%

União Santarém 3+ goals

18%

Farense 1+ goals

78%

Farense 2+ goals

45%

Farense 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)

48%

Farense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Farense away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.86 + Farense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Farense attack 2.21 + União Santarém defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

União Santarém scores more

37%

level

24%

Farense scores more

39%

Farense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

F. SimoesPenalty

35'

Didi

49'

F. Nunes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff