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União Santarém vs Cova De Piedade — Liga 3 2021

União Santarém
União Santarém
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
10/23/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 6Campo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União Santarém40%
×Draw28%
Cova De Piedade32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Santarém
1.26
Cova De Piedade
1.08

União Santarém creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

creates per match

União Santarém
1.09
Cova De Piedade
1.00

allows per match

União Santarém
1.16
Cova De Piedade
1.43

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw
68%
União Santarém or Cova De Piedade
72%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
60%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+
18%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals
72%
União Santarém 2+ goals
36%
União Santarém 3+ goals
13%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
66%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
29%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)
56%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + União Santarém defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

União Santarém scores more
40%
level
28%
Cova De Piedade scores more
32%

União Santarém at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: União Santarém 0–2 Cova De Piedade

Cova De Piedade beat União Santarém 2-0 in Liga 3 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Chã das Padeiras in Marvila.