União Santarém 0–1 Caldas: Result & Stats | Liga 3

União Santarém

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Caldas

J. R. Pires Gomes 9'

9/24/2025

Liga 3 · Round 5Campo Cha das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

União Santarém39%

×Draw27%

Caldas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União SantarémExpected goals in this matchCaldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.16

União Santarém

1.26

Caldas

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

1.09

creates per match

1.16

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

União Santarém

1.09

Caldas

1.16

allows per match

União Santarém

1.16

Caldas

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par

Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw

66%

União Santarém or Caldas

73%

Draw or Caldas

61%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+

17%

Caldas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals

72%

União Santarém 2+ goals

36%

União Santarém 3+ goals

13%

Caldas 1+ goals

69%

Caldas 2+ goals

32%

Caldas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)

53%

Caldas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Caldas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Caldas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Caldas attack 1.16 + União Santarém defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

União Santarém scores more

39%

level

27%

Caldas scores more

34%

União Santarém at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. R. Pires Gomes↳ D. Clemente

30'

J. Gata← G. Chaves

46'

T. Madeira← N. Medalli

54'

58'

60'

60'

71'

L. Farinha← D. Clemente

77'

Joao Ricardo← G. Aguas

83'

Yordy Marcelo← Pipo

83'

Ewandro Santos← M. Velosa

84'

E. Marcante← D. Monteiro

89'

D. Ramos← T. Castro

90+5'

Joao Ricardo

União

Caldas

1

Soares

3

⚽

14

66

7

4

▼

Pipo

6

Palmerio

8

A

▼

Clemente

11

▼

Velosa

9

▼

33

78

19

14

30

58

▼

Monteiro

16

Grilo

6

Nanco

24

▼

Medalli

49

▼

Castro

11

Goncalves

17

▼

Aguas

46'▲T. Madeira←▼N. Medalli

77'▲Joao Ricardo←▼G. Aguas

84'▲E. Marcante←▼D. Monteiro

89'▲D. Ramos←▼T. Castro

União Santarém substitutes

22Hidalgo29Teixeira15Midoes3Ricardo4Pereira5Rodeia76Ramos79Marcante10Madeira

30'▲J. Gata←▼G. Chaves

71'▲L. Farinha←▼D. Clemente

83'▲Yordy Marcelo←▼Pipo

83'▲Ewandro Santos←▼M. Velosa

Caldas substitutes

12Almeida10Januario2Marcelo23Catarino79Gata21Fernandes17Goncas25Farinha87Santos