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União Rondonópolis vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

União Rondonópolis
União Rondonópolis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
6/14/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

União Rondonópolis66%
×Draw20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Rondonópolis
2.12
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.86

União Rondonópolis creates 147% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 15 away

creates per match

União Rondonópolis
1.36
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

União Rondonópolis
1.00
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Rondonópolis ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

União Rondonópolis or draw
86%
União Rondonópolis or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
80%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
34%

Winning margin

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+
42%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals
88%
União Rondonópolis 2+ goals
62%
União Rondonópolis 3+ goals
35%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
58%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
21%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)
82%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Rondonópolis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Rondonópolis attack 1.36 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.12

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

União Rondonópolis scores more
66%
level
20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
14%

União Rondonópolis at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "União Rondonópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: União Rondonópolis 3–0 Real Desportivo Ariquemes

União Rondonópolis beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3-0 in Serie D on June 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso.